The hottest Chinese manufacturing industry is expe

2022-08-07
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China's manufacturing industry is expected to get out of the downturn pattern

data show that the decline of PPI continues to narrow year-on-year. This is mainly closely related to the recovery of the economy since the fourth quarter of 2012. The pre adjustment and fine adjustment of policies in the second and third quarters of 2012 led to the stabilization and recovery of the economy. The demand brought by the economic recovery led to the increase of product demand and the rise of product prices. At the same time, the manufacturing industry also began to end de stocking, and the profits of domestic enterprises generally rebounded. Therefore, the plight of enterprise management has been temporarily alleviated

recently, the import and export data released by the General Administration of Customs showed that the total value of imports and exports in December 2012 was 366.84 billion US dollars, an increase of 10.2%, of which exports were 1992.23 billion US dollars, an increase of 14.1%, and imports were 167.61 billion US dollars, an increase of 6%. The trade surplus was US $31.62 billion, an increase of 91.8%, exceeding market expectations; However, the factory price (PPI) of national industrial producers announced on January 11 fell by 1.9% year-on-year, 0.3% lower than that of the previous month. Although the metal and industrial CRB items rose in December, the CRB spot index, futures index and international oil price did not change much compared with that of the previous month, and the driving effect of input factors on PPI was limited. What is the operating status of the enterprise reflected by the existing economic data? Where is the way out and development direction of manufacturing industry? What is the macro trend of China's economy in 2013? With these questions, China enterprise daily interviewed panxiangdong, chief economist of Galaxy Securities

enterprises are in a weak recovery state. It is expected that the export growth rate will be stable this year.

China Enterprise News: from the macroeconomic data released at present, which industries will have a greater impact? What is the production and operation status of the enterprise? How will the measured value change in the future? The overall economic operation of the industry maintained a stable growth trend

panxiangdong: the data showed that the decline of PPI continued to narrow year-on-year. This is mainly closely related to the recovery of the economy since the fourth quarter of 2012. Step 2 of 2012: recheck the pre adjustment and fine adjustment of the policies for the second and third quarters of 2012, which led to the stabilization and recovery of the economy. The demand brought about by the economic recovery led to the increase of product demand and the rise of product prices. At the same time, the manufacturing industry also began to end de stocking, and the profits of domestic enterprises generally rebounded. Therefore, the plight of enterprise management has been temporarily alleviated

we expect that this weak economic recovery trend will continue in the next six months. The main reasons are as follows: first, at present, the economic recovery in overseas markets, especially in the United States, is relatively strong, which will lead to the recovery of global demand, thus promoting the stabilization and weak recovery of China's exports; Second, the pre adjustment and fine adjustment of macro-control policies since the first half of 2012 have begun to show their cumulative effect on economic growth; Third, on the occasion of the change of the central government, the implementation of real estate regulation and control will be weakened, which will lead to more active real estate transactions, thus driving the recovery of relevant industries. Under the condition that the comprehensive and sustained recovery is restricted, any economic recovery achieved through the stimulus policy will be a weak recovery

China Enterprise News: in december2012, the total value of import and export increased by 10.2%, of which export increased by 14.1% and import increased by 6%. The trade surplus was $31.62 billion, up 91.8 percent. Can we analyze and forecast the import and export trade in 2013 based on these data

panxiangdong: the export data in December 2012 reached 14.1%, which exceeded the general expectation of the market. However, from the data of the fourth quarter and the data of the whole year of 2012, the export still maintained a declining and stabilizing pattern. This is mainly because the world has not completely walked out of the track of economic downturn after the 2008 financial crisis

although the global economy has shown signs of stabilizing under the stimulus of the United States' continuous quantitative easing since 2012, it is expected to be difficult to form a new round of strong recovery of the global economy. Therefore, the import and export situation in 2013 still maintained a stable export growth pattern in 2012. The impact of this stable pattern on different enterprises will be differentiated. Enterprises that can adapt to the demand for products under the current economic situation or create new demand through product improvement will get out of the downturn. On the contrary, some enterprises may face a cold winter

the global economy is still sluggish, weakening the advantages of medium and low-end manufacturing industries

China Enterprise News: from the perspective of leading indicators, the manufacturing PMI in the euro zone in December 2012 was slightly lower than 46.2% in November, but he also pointed out that work security would be taken into consideration to reduce it to 46.1%, far below the watershed of prosperity and decline; In Japan, the manufacturing PMI was 45.0% in December 2012, and it has been running below 50% for seven consecutive months. Does the manufacturing economy continue to decline? How will this affect China's future manufacturing industry

panxiangdong: Europe and Japan are big manufacturing countries in the world. Their manufacturing PMI has been running below the boom and bust line, indicating that the global economy is still in a downturn. This downturn in demand for manufacturing will inevitably affect China's manufacturing industry. Due to the rising cost of labor, land, environment and energy in the middle and low-end, the international competitive advantage of our middle and low-end manufacturing industry is gradually losing. Therefore, how to upgrade the manufacturing industry from middle and low-end manufacturing to middle and high-end manufacturing is the biggest problem facing China's manufacturing industry

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